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Match Analysis: Portugal vs Croatia
Portugal once again bowed out of a major football stage, being defeated by France on penalties in the quarterfinals of EURO 2024. This marked the second consecutive time Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates exited at the quarterfinal stage, having been knocked out by Morocco in the World Cup 2022 quarterfinals in Qatar.
Following EURO 2024, while veteran Pepe has retired from international duty, superstar Ronaldo continues to be part of the team despite approaching his 40th birthday. He is gearing up for the UEFA Nations League campaign with the aim of leading his teammates to victory in a tournament they previously won in 2019.
UEFA has changed the format for the 2024/25 Nations League, introducing a quarterfinal stage in addition to the semifinals and finals. This means that the second-placed team in the group stages will also advance to the knockout rounds, opening up opportunities for teams like Poland, Scotland, and Croatia—Portugal’s first opponent.
With Portugal being the top favorite, Croatia will have to compete with Poland and Scotland for the remaining spot. After a disappointing EURO 2024, where they were eliminated in the group stage, Croatia now focuses on the UEFA Nations League, where they are the defending runners-up following a penalty shootout loss to Spain in the final in June 2023.
Croatia aims to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, but winning a title in the Nations League could also be a significant boost for the team.
Team News: Portugal vs Croatia
Coach Roberto Martinez has called up three young players—Geovany Quenda, Renato Veiga, and Tiago Santos—while dropping Joao Cancelo, Danilo Pereira, and Francisco Conceicao.
On the Croatian side, coach Zlatko Dalic continues to rely on experienced players such as Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric.
Predicted Lineups: Portugal vs Croatia
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Dalot, Dias, A. Silva, Mendes; Palhinha, Vitinha; B. Silva, Fernandes, Leao; Ronaldo.
Croatia (4-3-3): Livakovic; Pongracic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modric, Sucic, Kovacic; Pasalic, Kramaric, Ivanusec.
Betting Tips: Portugal vs Croatia
- Over 2.5 Goals: Historical encounters show that the last 3 matches between these two teams had at least 3 goals. Additionally, 5 out of 6 recent matches involving Croatia have seen at least 3 goals.
- Croatia to Win the First Half: Portugal has not covered the first-half spread in their last 3 matches, with 2 losses and 1 draw. Portugal also lost the first-half spread in their last 2 encounters with Croatia, including a friendly in June.
- Over 4.5 Corners in the First Half: Recent matches involving Portugal often feature numerous corners in the first half. 4 out of 5 EURO 2024 games involving Portugal saw at least 5 corners in the first half. Similarly, 4 out of 7 recent away matches for Croatia have also seen at least 5 corners in the first half. Moreover, the last 4 meetings between these teams have had 7 or more corners before halftime.
Score Prediction: Portugal vs Croatia
With the advantage of playing at home, Portugal is likely to take full advantage of the opportunity to secure a win in their UEFA Nations League opener. If coach Roberto Martinez maximizes the attacking talents available, a comfortable victory is within reach.
Prediction: Portugal 3-1 Croatia
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